NLL Insider

WingsfaninMA · #1 03-04-2009, 05:18 PM

93 Bandits?
01 Rock?
94 Wings?

We at Lacrosse Network are going to use the All Star Break to start a project to add to the debate. Using the simulation engine I have to predict the rest of the season, we are going to run an NLL Super Season ... 32 of the best teams square off in a 38 game regular season followed by a grueling 4 rounds of best of 7 playoffs.

Read the following article for all the details, and to find out the 32 participating teams:

http://www.lacrosse-network.com/inde...d=36&Itemid=57

mtbf · #2 03-04-2009, 05:33 PM

great stuff

Wing Eater · #3 03-04-2009, 07:44 PM

That is a hell of a lot of work but uber sexy for a math geek like me...

WingsfaninMA · #4 03-04-2009, 09:22 PM

Here is what the boxscores of the games will look like ...

1992 Turbos @ 2002 Attack

Mtn_Scott · #5 03-04-2009, 09:32 PM

I am curious, does your simulation include the first round Pepsi center Dis-advantage?

apetz1 · #6 03-04-2009, 09:35 PM

How do you figure the attendance?

WingsfaninMA · #7 03-04-2009, 09:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mtn_Scott

I am curious, does your simulation include the first round Pepsi center Dis-advantage?

It does not, but the 2 Mammoth teams did not perform significantly better at home than on the road, so the Pepsi Center isn't going to help the Mammoth too much in the sims. (Of course, home field advantage is a double edged sword ... overperforming your average at home means you have to underperform the average on the road.

WingsfaninMA · #8 03-04-2009, 09:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by apetz1

How do you figure the attendance?

The attendance is randomly simulated based on the capacity of the arena, and the record of the team. (Early in the season, all teams will draw on average 95% of capacity. After that, the dominant teams will sell out, while teams well below .500 might draw only 50% of capacity.)

A couple of the arenas I had to guess at capacity for the era, because they've under gone renovations since then.

WingsfaninMA · #9 03-04-2009, 09:40 PM

The biggest "strange" thing you'll see is that sometimes a goalie gets a first assist, and a runner will get a second assist. If that really, really bothers you, assume the scorekeeper just wrote them in the wrong order.

JohnnyMogul · #10 03-04-2009, 11:55 PM

Now if Deb could only run a separate pickem contest....

JohnnyMogul · #11 03-04-2009, 11:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by WingsfaninMA

01 Rock?

This one has my vote for "best team" (for me to poop on!)

RockStar#666 · #12 03-05-2009, 07:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by WingsfaninMA

The biggest "strange" thing you'll see is that sometimes a goalie gets a first assist, and a runner will get a second assist.....

Historical teams playing, so historical factor resurfaces

Used to see these a few times a season in Toronto with the old style pass-back-into-the-crease rules.

thwingfan · #13 03-05-2009, 07:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by WingsfaninMA

93 Bandits?
01 Rock?
94 Wings?

We at Lacrosse Network are going to use the All Star Break to start a project to add to the debate. Using the simulation engine I have to predict the rest of the season, we are going to run an NLL Super Season ... 32 of the best teams square off in a 38 game regular season followed by a grueling 4 rounds of best of 7 playoffs.

Read the following article for all the details, and to find out the 32 participating teams:

http://www.lacrosse-network.com/inde...d=36&Itemid=57

As much as this kills me as a Wings fan, I'd have to say the 93 Bandits were probably the best team I've seen.

WingsfaninMA · #14 03-05-2009, 08:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockStar#666

Historical teams playing, so historical factor resurfaces

Used to see these a few times a season in Toronto with the old style pass-back-into-the-crease rules.

Good call!

WingsfaninMA · #15 03-05-2009, 08:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thwingfan

As much as this kills me as a Wings fan, I'd have to say the 93 Bandits were probably the best team I've seen.

I think the 94 Wings were the best team at home, but the 93 Bandits were the best team overall. As those two teams ended up in the same division in the random draw, I see them splitting the regular season, and then whenever they meet in the playoffs might be decided by home field.

MVPGrant24 · #16 03-05-2009, 10:02 AM

I believe the two teams that have the best nll franchises are the Toronto Rock and Philadelphia Wings.

Vin · #17 03-05-2009, 10:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by WingsfaninMA

Here is what the boxscores of the games will look like ...

1992 Turbos @ 2002 Attack

Just a minor side note:
1. Rosyski with no goals? That just seems wrong.
2. The Pepsi Arena is now The Times-Union Center. The T-U is the local newspaper and they bought the naming rights a year or two ago. I think the name changed on 01 Jan 2007.
3. 9000+ in the arena in Albany? That'd be nice, but I don't have that many relatives.

WingsfaninMA · #18 03-05-2009, 10:22 AM

It was the Pepsi Arena in 2002. Not only to the teams travel to the city, they also travel back in time. (If you look at Pages 2 - 5 of the intro article where it introduces all 32 teams, you'll see the name of the arena and the capacity of the arena. Pepsi Arena is one of the capacities I had to guess at, I couldn't find it, so I think that the capacity = Attack's largest attendance. The other was the War Memorial before the renovations ... based on the attendance of the Hawks before then, I assumed it was 7,500.)

As far as Rosyski ... well, it's still random. Over the course of 38 games, he should score about the same percentage of the teams goals as he did in 2002, but any individual game is just random selections.

Vin · #19 03-05-2009, 10:26 AM

I get it now, thanks. Yes, an ambitious project! I sort wish you did this during the off-season so it'd be less boring then.

The Pepsi Arena has a capacity of about 13000 for hockey/lax. I'm trying to find where that is documented, but a good rule of thumb would be to check the attendance of the 1999 Arena Bowl which, I believe, was hosted by the Albany Firebirds.

I looked up the 1999 Arena Bowl: 13,652

WingsfaninMA · #20 03-05-2009, 10:34 AM

OK, I'll fix the Albany capacity tonight. Too late for game 1, but the other 18 home games plus any home games will be based on that capacity.

rocker23 · #21 03-05-2009, 10:41 AM

Didn't they win 15 straight to win the championship? Thats pretty good.

Bandit · #22 03-05-2009, 02:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JohnnyMogul

Now if Deb could only run a separate pickem contest....

Well ... if someone would have thought of this before the Super Season started, I could have ....

RushFan2 · #23 03-05-2009, 04:40 PM

Has to be the 2006 RUSH. They rocked the league with ONE win that year and have been burning up the league ever since. LOL

WingsfaninMA · #24 03-05-2009, 04:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Vin

I get it now, thanks. Yes, an ambitious project! I sort wish you did this during the off-season so it'd be less boring then.

The Pepsi Arena has a capacity of about 13000 for hockey/lax. I'm trying to find where that is documented, but a good rule of thumb would be to check the attendance of the 1999 Arena Bowl which, I believe, was hosted by the Albany Firebirds.

I looked up the 1999 Arena Bowl: 13,652

Vin, there will be ~700 boxscores generated by the project. You can keep yourself busy coming up with ways to analyse those all summer if you want.

Mtn_Scott · #25 03-05-2009, 05:39 PM

Do you have game 1 results yet?